Maybe you have heard the expression "gambler's fallacy" before, maybe you have not. But knowing what it means can be a great help when playing poker for example. Here is an explanation of the term.
What is the probability of getting five sixes in row while rolling a dice? The answer is: More than one in a thousand. So what are the odds of the next roll coming up a six, if we have gotten five sixes in the previous dice rolls?
The Gambler's fallacy is about the logic mind traps in which we let the historic outcome affect our future predictions in random results. The odds in the above example is - one in six! The result is completely independent of our earlier dice rolls, the dice does not know that it is in a "flow of sixes". The dice lacks memory! So the probability of winning on lotto, for example is just as great if you use the same numbers every week or change them up.
This phenomenon is pretty obvious once you think about it, however - to the human brain it is hard to comprehend it at a first look.
So how does this relate to poker? Well - there are no such things as "streaks". Many novice players see the chances of them getting good or bad cards as something depending on the cars before and might be inclined to be careless with their betting if they think they are on a streak. So remember the gambler's fallacy and analyze each hand on its own. But also remember that you can use it to your advantage while bluffing - other people might fall for it too!
What is the probability of getting five sixes in row while rolling a dice? The answer is: More than one in a thousand. So what are the odds of the next roll coming up a six, if we have gotten five sixes in the previous dice rolls?
The Gambler's fallacy is about the logic mind traps in which we let the historic outcome affect our future predictions in random results. The odds in the above example is - one in six! The result is completely independent of our earlier dice rolls, the dice does not know that it is in a "flow of sixes". The dice lacks memory! So the probability of winning on lotto, for example is just as great if you use the same numbers every week or change them up.
This phenomenon is pretty obvious once you think about it, however - to the human brain it is hard to comprehend it at a first look.
So how does this relate to poker? Well - there are no such things as "streaks". Many novice players see the chances of them getting good or bad cards as something depending on the cars before and might be inclined to be careless with their betting if they think they are on a streak. So remember the gambler's fallacy and analyze each hand on its own. But also remember that you can use it to your advantage while bluffing - other people might fall for it too!
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